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Deleveraging: The Real Lesson from Japan...

publication date: Jun 16, 2010
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The biggest economic debate at the moment, which underpins very polarized opinions on deflation versus inflation and the risk of a recessionary 'double-dip', is whether it makes sense to cut fiscal deficits while the private sector is still shrinking its balance sheet. The purist followers of the Austrian school (known as 'liquidationists' in the 1930s Depression, such as Andrew Mellon, the then US Treasury Secretary) argue that we need to flush the system of the excess debt that has accumulated via aggressive restructuring and a return to financial discipline in both the public and private sectors, or risk the debasement of money. The alternative viewpoint, taken by the neo-Keynesians, whose poster child is Japanese economist Richard Koo, is that premature austerity will kill a fragile recovery in a 'balance sheet recession', and that encouraging nominal GDP growth via government spending is the best way to bring down debt ratios. Total US debt outstanding shrank in 2009  for the first year in the 58 years of data. The aggregate debt/GDP ratio at the end of 2009 had shrunk to 345%, having peaked at 359% in Q1 as households deleveraged in the wake of the housing collapse and soaring unemployment. The US financial sector has seen borrowing dropping from a peak of $2.6 trillion in the third quarter of 2007, to $2.2 trillion in Q2 2009. Household debt peaked in Q1 2009 at $13.9 trillion (97% of GDP); that ratio has since come down to sub 94%. The only sector where leverage has been increasing is government debt, both federal and state. 



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